Let be a natural number with . Using one die and one coin, perform the following experiment.\begin{center}\fbox{\begin{minipage}{0.9\textwidth}Roll the die once.\quad-- If the outcome is less than or equal to , toss the coin times and record the number of heads.\quad-- If the outcome is greater than , toss the coin times and record the number of heads.\end{minipage}}\end{center}Repeat this experiment times, and let be the number of times the recorded value is . Suppose that . Using the standard normal table on the right, computeand let this value be . Compute 1000 $$\times$$ k. [4 points]\begin{center}\begin{tabular}{|c|c|}\hline & \\hline0.5 & 0.191 \\hline1.0 & 0.341 \\hline1.5 & 0.433 \\hline2.0 & 0.477 \\hline2.5 & 0.494 \\hline3.0 & 0.499 \\hline\end{tabular}\end{center}\
[THOUGHT] Let me analyze this problem step by step.
First, I need to find the value of given that .
When we roll a die:
- With probability , the outcome is , and we toss the coin 5 times
- With probability , the outcome is , and we toss the coin 3 times
The probability of getting exactly 3 heads:
- In 5 tosses:
- In 3 tosses:
So the probability of recording 3 in one experiment is:
Since follows a binomial distribution with trials and probability :
Given :
Now I need to find
For the variance:
So
Using normal approximation:
So and
Let me verify this with Python. [/THOUGHT] [PYTHON] from math import comb
First, find a given E(X) = 4800
P(3 heads in 5 tosses)
p_5 = comb(5, 3) * (1/2)**5 print(f"P(3 heads in 5 tosses) = {p_5} = {comb(5,3)}/32")
P(3 heads in 3 tosses)
p_3 = comb(3, 3) * (1/2)**3 print(f"P(3 heads in 3 tosses) = {p_3} = 1/8")
For a given a, probability of recording 3 in one experiment
p = (a/6) * p_5 + ((6-a)/6) * p_3
p = (a/6) * (5/16) + ((6-a)/6) * (1/8)
p = 5a/96 + (6-a)/48 = 5a/96 + 2(6-a)/96 = (5a + 12 - 2a)/96 = (3a + 12)/96 = (a+4)/32
E(X) = 19200 * p = 19200 * (a+4)/32 = 600(a+4)
600(a+4) = 4800
a + 4 = 8
a = 4
a = 4 p = (a + 4) / 32 print(f"a = {a}") print(f"p = {p} = {a+4}/32")
Verify E(X)
n = 19200 E_X = n * p print(f"E(X) = {E_X}")
Variance
Var_X = n * p * (1 - p) print(f"Var(X) = {Var_X}") sigma = Var_X ** 0.5 print(f"sigma = {sigma}")
P(X <= 4800 + 30a) = P(X <= 4800 + 120) = P(X <= 4920)
threshold = 4800 + 30 * a print(f"threshold = {threshold}")
Z-score
z = (threshold - E_X) / sigma print(f"z = {z}")
P(Z <= 2) = 0.5 + P(0 <= Z <= 2) = 0.5 + 0.477
k = 0.5 + 0.477 print(f"k = P(X <= 4920) = {k}")
1000 * k
result = 1000 * k print(f"1000 * k = {result}") [/PYTHON]
[THOUGHT] The Python calculation confirms my analysis:
- We found from the condition
- The probability
- Variance is , so
- We need , which corresponds to
- Using the standard normal table:
- Therefore and [/THOUGHT]
\boxed{977}