Problem Analysis #38

21.07s
5,947 toks
Problem Statement

Let aa be a natural number with a6a \leq 6. Using one die and one coin, perform the following experiment.\begin{center}\fbox{\begin{minipage}{0.9\textwidth}Roll the die once.\quad-- If the outcome is less than or equal to aa, toss the coin 55 times and record the number of heads.\quad-- If the outcome is greater than aa, toss the coin 33 times and record the number of heads.\end{minipage}}\end{center}Repeat this experiment 1920019200 times, and let XX be the number of times the recorded value is 33. Suppose that E(X)=4800\text{E}(X) = 4800. Using the standard normal table on the right, computeP(X4800+30a),\text{P}(X \leq 4800 + 30a),and let this value be kk. Compute 1000 $$\times$$ k. [4 points]\begin{center}\begin{tabular}{|c|c|}\hlinezz & P(0Zz)\text{P}(0 \leq Z \leq z) \\hline0.5 & 0.191 \\hline1.0 & 0.341 \\hline1.5 & 0.433 \\hline2.0 & 0.477 \\hline2.5 & 0.494 \\hline3.0 & 0.499 \\hline\end{tabular}\end{center}\

Ground Truth
977
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] Let me analyze this problem step by step.

First, I need to find the value of aa given that E(X)=4800E(X) = 4800.

When we roll a die:

  • With probability a6\frac{a}{6}, the outcome is a\leq a, and we toss the coin 5 times
  • With probability 6a6\frac{6-a}{6}, the outcome is >a> a, and we toss the coin 3 times

The probability of getting exactly 3 heads:

  • In 5 tosses: (53)(12)5=10132=1032=516\binom{5}{3} \cdot \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^5 = 10 \cdot \frac{1}{32} = \frac{10}{32} = \frac{5}{16}
  • In 3 tosses: (33)(12)3=118=18\binom{3}{3} \cdot \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3 = 1 \cdot \frac{1}{8} = \frac{1}{8}

So the probability of recording 3 in one experiment is: p=a6516+6a618p = \frac{a}{6} \cdot \frac{5}{16} + \frac{6-a}{6} \cdot \frac{1}{8}

p=5a96+6a48=5a96+2(6a)96=5a+122a96=3a+1296=a+432p = \frac{5a}{96} + \frac{6-a}{48} = \frac{5a}{96} + \frac{2(6-a)}{96} = \frac{5a + 12 - 2a}{96} = \frac{3a + 12}{96} = \frac{a + 4}{32}

Since XX follows a binomial distribution with n=19200n = 19200 trials and probability pp: E(X)=np=19200a+432=600(a+4)E(X) = n \cdot p = 19200 \cdot \frac{a + 4}{32} = 600(a + 4)

Given E(X)=4800E(X) = 4800: 600(a+4)=4800600(a + 4) = 4800 a+4=8a + 4 = 8 a=4a = 4

Now I need to find P(X4800+30a)=P(X4800+120)=P(X4920)P(X \leq 4800 + 30a) = P(X \leq 4800 + 120) = P(X \leq 4920)

For the variance: Var(X)=np(1p)=192008322432=192001434=19200316=3600Var(X) = n \cdot p \cdot (1-p) = 19200 \cdot \frac{8}{32} \cdot \frac{24}{32} = 19200 \cdot \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{3}{4} = 19200 \cdot \frac{3}{16} = 3600

So σ=3600=60\sigma = \sqrt{3600} = 60

Using normal approximation: Z=Xμσ=X480060Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} = \frac{X - 4800}{60}

P(X4920)=P(Z4920480060)=P(Z2)P(X \leq 4920) = P\left(Z \leq \frac{4920 - 4800}{60}\right) = P(Z \leq 2)

P(Z2)=0.5+P(0Z2)=0.5+0.477=0.977P(Z \leq 2) = 0.5 + P(0 \leq Z \leq 2) = 0.5 + 0.477 = 0.977

So k=0.977k = 0.977 and 1000×k=9771000 \times k = 977

Let me verify this with Python. [/THOUGHT] [PYTHON] from math import comb

First, find a given E(X) = 4800

P(3 heads in 5 tosses)

p_5 = comb(5, 3) * (1/2)**5 print(f"P(3 heads in 5 tosses) = {p_5} = {comb(5,3)}/32")

P(3 heads in 3 tosses)

p_3 = comb(3, 3) * (1/2)**3 print(f"P(3 heads in 3 tosses) = {p_3} = 1/8")

For a given a, probability of recording 3 in one experiment

p = (a/6) * p_5 + ((6-a)/6) * p_3

p = (a/6) * (5/16) + ((6-a)/6) * (1/8)

p = 5a/96 + (6-a)/48 = 5a/96 + 2(6-a)/96 = (5a + 12 - 2a)/96 = (3a + 12)/96 = (a+4)/32

E(X) = 19200 * p = 19200 * (a+4)/32 = 600(a+4)

600(a+4) = 4800

a + 4 = 8

a = 4

a = 4 p = (a + 4) / 32 print(f"a = {a}") print(f"p = {p} = {a+4}/32")

Verify E(X)

n = 19200 E_X = n * p print(f"E(X) = {E_X}")

Variance

Var_X = n * p * (1 - p) print(f"Var(X) = {Var_X}") sigma = Var_X ** 0.5 print(f"sigma = {sigma}")

P(X <= 4800 + 30a) = P(X <= 4800 + 120) = P(X <= 4920)

threshold = 4800 + 30 * a print(f"threshold = {threshold}")

Z-score

z = (threshold - E_X) / sigma print(f"z = {z}")

P(Z <= 2) = 0.5 + P(0 <= Z <= 2) = 0.5 + 0.477

k = 0.5 + 0.477 print(f"k = P(X <= 4920) = {k}")

1000 * k

result = 1000 * k print(f"1000 * k = {result}") [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] P(3 heads in 5 tosses) = 0.3125 = 10/32 P(3 heads in 3 tosses) = 0.125 = 1/8 a = 4 p = 0.25 = 8/32 E(X) = 4800.0 Var(X) = 3600.0 sigma = 60.0 threshold = 4920 z = 2.0 k = P(X <= 4920) = 0.977 1000 * k = 977.0 [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] The Python calculation confirms my analysis:

  • We found a=4a = 4 from the condition E(X)=4800E(X) = 4800
  • The probability p=a+432=832=14p = \frac{a+4}{32} = \frac{8}{32} = \frac{1}{4}
  • Variance is 36003600, so σ=60\sigma = 60
  • We need P(X4920)P(X \leq 4920), which corresponds to z=2z = 2
  • Using the standard normal table: P(Z2)=0.5+0.477=0.977P(Z \leq 2) = 0.5 + 0.477 = 0.977
  • Therefore k=0.977k = 0.977 and 1000×k=9771000 \times k = 977 [/THOUGHT]

\boxed{977}

Final Model Output
977

Comparative Analysis (P38) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
69.5
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
64.7
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
57.4
Deepseek-V3.2
51.2
Grok-4.1-fast
32.0
HCX-007(high)
30.4
A.X-4.0 (72B)
28.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
25.8
Claude-Opus-4.5
21.1
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
7.3

Avg Token Usage

Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
10399.0
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
10165.0
Grok-4.1-fast
6540.0
Claude-Opus-4.5
5947.0
Deepseek-V3.2
5195.0
HCX-007(high)
5075.0
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
4934.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
3762.0
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
3117.0
A.X-4.0 (72B)
2613.0