Problem Analysis #11

43.39s
4,986 toks
Problem Statement

Three students S1S_1, S2S_2, and S3S_3 are given a problem to solve. Consider the following events:AA: At least one of S1S_1, S2S_2, and S3S_3 can solve the problem,BB: S1S_1 can solve the problem, given that neither S2S_2 nor S3S_3 can solve the problem,CC: S2S_2 can solve the problem and S3S_3 cannot solve the problem,DD: S3S_3 can solve the problem.For any event EE, let P(E)P(E) denote the probability of EE. IfP(B)=12,P(C)=110,andP(D)=112,P(B) = \frac{1}{2}, \quad P(C) = \frac{1}{10}, \quad \text{and} \quad P(D) = \frac{1}{12},and P(A)=pqP(A) = \dfrac{p}{q} where pp and qq are coprime positive integers, find the value of p2+q2p^2 + q^2.\

Ground Truth
1465
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] We need to interpret the events carefully.

Let:

  • Let X1, X2, X3 be independent? Not necessarily independent, but we can define probabilities for each student solving the problem.

Define: Let p1 = P(S1 solves), p2 = P(S2 solves), p3 = P(S3 solves). They may not be independent, but we have conditional probabilities and joint probabilities.

Events: A: At least one of S1, S2, S3 can solve the problem. B: S1 can solve the problem, given that neither S2 nor S3 can solve the problem. This is a conditional probability: B = event that S1 solves given that S2 and S3 cannot. So P(B) = P(S1 solves | S2 fails and S3 fails) = 1/2.

C: S2 can solve the problem and S3 cannot solve the problem. This is a joint event: C = {S2 solves ∩ S3 fails}. P(C) = 1/10.

D: S3 can solve the problem. P(D) = 1/12.

We need P(A) = P(at least one solves) = 1 - P(none solves).

Let’s denote: Let a = P(S1 fails, S2 fails, S3 fails) = P(no one solves). Let’s denote probabilities for each combination of solves/fails.

We have 8 elementary events: (s1, s2, s3) where each is 0 (fail) or 1 (solve). Let’s denote probabilities p_{ijk} where i,j,k ∈ {0,1} for S1, S2, S3 respectively.

We know: P(D) = P(S3 solves) = p_{001} + p_{011} + p_{101} + p_{111} = 1/12.

P(C) = P(S2 solves and S3 fails) = p_{010} + p_{110} = 1/10.

P(B) = P(S1 solves | S2 fails and S3 fails) = P(S1 solves and S2 fails and S3 fails) / P(S2 fails and S3 fails) = (p_{100}) / (p_{000} + p_{100}) = 1/2.

Thus p_{100} / (p_{000} + p_{100}) = 1/2 → 2 p_{100} = p_{000} + p_{100} → p_{100} = p_{000}.

Also, sum of all p_{ijk} = 1.

We need P(A) = 1 - p_{000}.

We have unknowns: p_{000}, p_{001}, p_{010}, p_{011}, p_{100}, p_{101}, p_{110}, p_{111} ≥ 0, sum = 1.

Equations: (1) p_{000} + p_{001} + p_{010} + p_{011} + p_{100} + p_{101} + p_{110} + p_{111} = 1. (2) p_{001} + p_{011} + p_{101} + p_{111} = 1/12. (3) p_{010} + p_{110} = 1/10. (4) p_{100} = p_{000}.

We have 8 unknowns, 4 equations. But we might need additional assumptions? Possibly independence? Not given. However, maybe we can express P(A) in terms of these probabilities without needing all individually.

We can try to solve for p_{000} using these equations.

Let’s denote: A0 = p_{000}, A1 = p_{001}, A2 = p_{010}, A3 = p_{011}, A4 = p_{100}, A5 = p_{101}, A6 = p_{110}, A7 = p_{111}.

Equation (4): A4 = A0.

Equation (2): A1 + A3 + A5 + A7 = 1/12. Equation (3): A2 + A6 = 1/10. Sum equation: A0 + A1 + A2 + A3 + A4 + A5 + A6 + A7 = 1.

Substitute A4 = A0: 2A0 + A1 + A2 + A3 + A5 + A6 + A7 = 1.

Now substitute (2) and (3): Let S1 = A1 + A3 + A5 + A7 = 1/12. Let S2 = A2 + A6 = 1/10.

Then sum becomes: 2A0 + (A2 + A6) + (A1 + A3 + A5 + A7) = 2A0 + 1/10 + 1/12 = 1.

Thus 2A0 + (1/10 + 1/12) = 1.

Compute 1/10 + 1/12 = (6/60 + 5/60) = 11/60.

So 2A0 + 11/60 = 1 → 2A0 = 1 - 11/60 = 49/60 → A0 = 49/120.

Thus p_{000} = 49/120.

Then P(A) = 1 - p_{000} = 1 - 49/120 = (120 - 49)/120 = 71/120.

Check p and q coprime: 71 and 120 share no common factors (71 is prime, 120 divisible by 2,3,5). So p=71, q=120.

Then p^2 + q^2 = 71^2 + 120^2 = 5041 + 14400 = 19441.

We should verify with Python to ensure no arithmetic mistakes.

[/THOUGHT] [PYTHON] import fractions

Compute p000

one = fractions.Fraction(1, 1) p000 = (one - fractions.Fraction(1,10) - fractions.Fraction(1,12)) / 2 print("p000 =", p000) print("P(A) = 1 - p000 =", one - p000) p = 71 q = 120 print("p^2 + q^2 =", p2 + q2) [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] p000 = 49/120 P(A) = 1 - p000 = 71/120 p^2 + q^2 = 19441 [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] The Python output confirms that (p_{000} = \frac{49}{120}), so (P(A) = \frac{71}{120}). Thus (p = 71), (q = 120), and (p^2 + q^2 = 19441). [/THOUGHT] \boxed{19441}

Final Model Output
19441

Comparative Analysis (P11) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
228.5
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
51.6
Deepseek-V3.2
43.4
HCX-007(high)
39.0
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
33.7
A.X-4.0 (72B)
26.7
GPT-5.1 (high)
18.1
Grok-4.1-fast
18.1
Claude-Opus-4.5
16.1
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
5.8

Avg Token Usage

Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
10703.0
Grok-4.1-fast
8474.0
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
6509.0
A.X-4.0 (72B)
5008.0
Deepseek-V3.2
4986.0
HCX-007(high)
4852.0
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
4557.0
Claude-Opus-4.5
4549.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
3536.0
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
2394.0