Problem Analysis #11

228.48s
10,703 toks
Problem Statement

Three students S1S_1, S2S_2, and S3S_3 are given a problem to solve. Consider the following events:AA: At least one of S1S_1, S2S_2, and S3S_3 can solve the problem,BB: S1S_1 can solve the problem, given that neither S2S_2 nor S3S_3 can solve the problem,CC: S2S_2 can solve the problem and S3S_3 cannot solve the problem,DD: S3S_3 can solve the problem.For any event EE, let P(E)P(E) denote the probability of EE. IfP(B)=12,P(C)=110,andP(D)=112,P(B) = \frac{1}{2}, \quad P(C) = \frac{1}{10}, \quad \text{and} \quad P(D) = \frac{1}{12},and P(A)=pqP(A) = \dfrac{p}{q} where pp and qq are coprime positive integers, find the value of p2+q2p^2 + q^2.\

Ground Truth
19441
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

The problem asks for the value of p2+q2p^2 + q^2 where P(A)=pqP(A) = \frac{p}{q}. The events are defined as:

  • AA: At least one of S1,S2,S3S_1, S_2, S_3 solves the problem (S1S2S3S_1 \cup S_2 \cup S_3).
  • BB: S1S_1 solves given neither S2S_2 nor S3S_3 solves (S1S2cS3cS_1 | S_2^c \cap S_3^c). P(B)=1/2P(B) = 1/2.
  • CC: S2S_2 solves and S3S_3 does not (S2S3cS_2 \cap S_3^c). P(C)=1/10P(C) = 1/10.
  • DD: S3S_3 solves (S3S_3). P(D)=1/12P(D) = 1/12.

[PYTHON] from fractions import Fraction

Given probabilities

P_B = Fraction(1, 2) # P(S1 | S2' S3') P_C = Fraction(1, 10) # P(S2 S3') P_D = Fraction(1, 12) # P(S3)

We want P(A) = P(S1 U S2 U S3) = 1 - P(S1' S2' S3')

Step 1: Calculate P(S2' S3')

The sample space can be partitioned by S2 and S3 states:

1. S3 (which includes S2 S3 and S2' S3) -> Probability P(D) = 1/12

2. S2 S3' (Event C) -> Probability P(C) = 1/10

3. S2' S3' -> Let this be x

Sum must be 1.

P(S3) + P(S2 S3') + P(S2' S3') = 1

Note: P(S3) covers both (S2 S3) and (S2' S3).

The events S3 and (S2 S3') are disjoint because one requires S3 true, the other S3 false.

So P(S3 U (S2 S3')) = P(S3) + P(S2 S3')

And the complement is S2' S3'.

P_S2_prime_S3_prime = 1 - (P_D + P_C) print(f"P(S2' S3') = {P_S2_prime_S3_prime}")

Step 2: Use P(B) to find P(S1 S2' S3')

P(B) = P(S1 | S2' S3') = P(S1 S2' S3') / P(S2' S3')

P(S1 S2' S3') = P(B) * P(S2' S3')

P_S1_S2_prime_S3_prime = P_B * P_S2_prime_S3_prime print(f"P(S1 S2' S3') = {P_S1_S2_prime_S3_prime}")

Step 3: Calculate P(S1' S2' S3')

We know P(S2' S3') = P(S1 S2' S3') + P(S1' S2' S3')

So P(S1' S2' S3') = P(S2' S3') - P(S1 S2' S3')

P_S1_prime_S2_prime_S3_prime = P_S2_prime_S3_prime - P_S1_S2_prime_S3_prime print(f"P(S1' S2' S3') = {P_S1_prime_S2_prime_S3_prime}")

Step 4: Calculate P(A)

P(A) = 1 - P(S1' S2' S3')

P_A = 1 - P_S1_prime_S2_prime_S3_prime print(f"P(A) = {P_A}")

p = P_A.numerator q = P_A.denominator print(f"p = {p}, q = {q}") print(f"p^2 + q^2 = {p2 + q2}") [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] P(S2' S3') = 49/60 P(S1 S2' S3') = 49/120 P(S1' S2' S3') = 49/120 P(A) = 71/120 p = 71, q = 120 p^2 + q^2 = 19441 [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

The probability P(A)P(A) is calculated as follows: Let E1E_1 be the event that S1S_1 solves the problem, E2E_2 for S2S_2, and E3E_3 for S3S_3. We are given:

  1. P(B)=P(E1E2cE3c)=12P(B) = P(E_1 \mid E_2^c E_3^c) = \frac{1}{2}
  2. P(C)=P(E2E3c)=110P(C) = P(E_2 E_3^c) = \frac{1}{10}
  3. P(D)=P(E3)=112P(D) = P(E_3) = \frac{1}{12}

We want to find P(A)=P(E1E2E3)=1P(E1cE2cE3c)P(A) = P(E_1 \cup E_2 \cup E_3) = 1 - P(E_1^c E_2^c E_3^c).

First, consider the partition of the sample space based on E2E_2 and E3E_3: The events E3E_3 and E2E3cE_2 E_3^c are disjoint. Their union is E3(E2E3c)=E3E2E_3 \cup (E_2 E_3^c) = E_3 \cup E_2. Thus, P(E2E3)=P(E3)+P(E2E3c)=112+110=560+660=1160P(E_2 \cup E_3) = P(E_3) + P(E_2 E_3^c) = \frac{1}{12} + \frac{1}{10} = \frac{5}{60} + \frac{6}{60} = \frac{11}{60}.

The complement of E2E3E_2 \cup E_3 is E2cE3cE_2^c E_3^c. P(E2cE3c)=1P(E2E3)=11160=4960P(E_2^c E_3^c) = 1 - P(E_2 \cup E_3) = 1 - \frac{11}{60} = \frac{49}{60}.

From the definition of conditional probability for event BB: P(B)=P(E1E2cE3c)P(E2cE3c)=12P(B) = \frac{P(E_1 E_2^c E_3^c)}{P(E_2^c E_3^c)} = \frac{1}{2}. So, P(E1E2cE3c)=12×4960=49120P(E_1 E_2^c E_3^c) = \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{49}{60} = \frac{49}{120}.

We can decompose P(E2cE3c)P(E_2^c E_3^c) into disjoint events based on E1E_1: P(E2cE3c)=P(E1E2cE3c)+P(E1cE2cE3c)P(E_2^c E_3^c) = P(E_1 E_2^c E_3^c) + P(E_1^c E_2^c E_3^c). 4960=49120+P(E1cE2cE3c)\frac{49}{60} = \frac{49}{120} + P(E_1^c E_2^c E_3^c). P(E1cE2cE3c)=9812049120=49120P(E_1^c E_2^c E_3^c) = \frac{98}{120} - \frac{49}{120} = \frac{49}{120}.

Finally, P(A)=1P(E1cE2cE3c)=149120=71120P(A) = 1 - P(E_1^c E_2^c E_3^c) = 1 - \frac{49}{120} = \frac{71}{120}. Thus, p=71p = 71 and q=120q = 120. These are coprime since 71 is prime and not a factor of 120. We need to find p2+q2p^2 + q^2: p2+q2=712+1202=5041+14400=19441p^2 + q^2 = 71^2 + 120^2 = 5041 + 14400 = 19441.

\boxed{19441}

Final Model Output
19441

Comparative Analysis (P11) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
228.5
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
51.6
Deepseek-V3.2
43.4
HCX-007(high)
39.0
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
33.7
A.X-4.0 (72B)
26.7
GPT-5.1 (high)
18.1
Grok-4.1-fast
18.1
Claude-Opus-4.5
16.1
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
5.8

Avg Token Usage

Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
10703.0
Grok-4.1-fast
8474.0
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
6509.0
A.X-4.0 (72B)
5008.0
Deepseek-V3.2
4986.0
HCX-007(high)
4852.0
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
4557.0
Claude-Opus-4.5
4549.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
3536.0
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
2394.0