Problem Analysis #38

39.16s
8,437 toks
Problem Statement

Let aa be a natural number with a6a \leq 6. Using one die and one coin, perform the following experiment.\begin{center}\fbox{\begin{minipage}{0.9\textwidth}Roll the die once.\quad-- If the outcome is less than or equal to aa, toss the coin 55 times and record the number of heads.\quad-- If the outcome is greater than aa, toss the coin 33 times and record the number of heads.\end{minipage}}\end{center}Repeat this experiment 1920019200 times, and let XX be the number of times the recorded value is 33. Suppose that E(X)=4800\text{E}(X) = 4800. Using the standard normal table on the right, computeP(X4800+30a),\text{P}(X \leq 4800 + 30a),and let this value be kk. Compute 1000 $$\times$$ k. [4 points]\begin{center}\begin{tabular}{|c|c|}\hlinezz & P(0Zz)\text{P}(0 \leq Z \leq z) \\hline0.5 & 0.191 \\hline1.0 & 0.341 \\hline1.5 & 0.433 \\hline2.0 & 0.477 \\hline2.5 & 0.494 \\hline3.0 & 0.499 \\hline\end{tabular}\end{center}\

Ground Truth
977
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] We are given that E(X) = 4800, and the experiment is repeated 19200 times. The probability of recording 3 heads depends on the die outcome. The die has sides 1 to 6, and a is a natural number ≤ 6. The probability p that a single trial records 3 is: p = (a/6) * (C(5,3) * (0.5)^5) + ((6-a)/6) * (C(3,3) * (0.5)^3) = (a/6) * (10/32) + ((6-a)/6) * (1/8) = (a/6) * (5/16) + ((6-a)/6) * (1/8) = (5a)/(96) + (6-a)/(48)

Given E[X] = n * p = 19200 * p = 4800, so p = 4800 / 19200 = 0.25. Solving for a: 0.25 = (5a)/96 + (6-a)/48 Multiply by 96: 24 = 5a + 2(6 - a) => 24 = 5a + 12 - 2a => 24 = 3a + 12 => 3a = 12 => a = 4.

Now compute P(X ≤ 4800 + 30a) = P(X ≤ 4800 + 120) = P(X ≤ 4920). X ~ Binomial(n=19200, p=0.25). Using normal approximation: μ = 19200 * 0.25 = 4800 σ² = 19200 * 0.25 * 0.75 = 3600 ⇒ σ = 60 Continuity correction: P(X ≤ 4920) ≈ P(Y < 4920.5) where Y ~ N(4800, 60) z = (4920.5 - 4800) / 60 = 120.5 / 60 ≈ 2.00833 Using standard normal table, P(0 ≤ Z ≤ 2.0) = 0.477 (from table z=2.0) Cumulative P(Z ≤ 2.00833) ≈ 0.5 + 0.477 = 0.977 k = 0.977, then 1000 × k = 977. [/THOUGHT] [PYTHON] print(977) [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] 977 [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] The Python code printed 977, which is the result of 1000 multiplied by k. Since the problem asks for 1000 × k and the output is 977, this must be the correct integer value. I will box this result as the final answer. [/THOUGHT] \boxed{977}

Final Model Output
977

Comparative Analysis (P38) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
249.6
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
69.5
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
64.7
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
57.4
Deepseek-V3.2
51.2
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
39.2
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
37.6
Grok-4.1-fast
32.0
HCX-007(high)
30.4
A.X-4.0 (72B)
28.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
25.8
Solar-Open-100B
23.2
Claude-Opus-4.5
21.1
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
17.5
GPT-5.2 (high)
16.8
axk1
8.2
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
7.3

Avg Token Usage

K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
38446.0
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
10399.0
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
10165.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
9914.5
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
8437.0
Grok-4.1-fast
6540.0
Solar-Open-100B
6465.0
Claude-Opus-4.5
5947.0
Deepseek-V3.2
5195.0
HCX-007(high)
5075.0
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
4934.0
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
4808.0
GPT-5.2 (high)
4057.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
3762.0
axk1
3323.0
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
3117.0
A.X-4.0 (72B)
2613.0