Problem Analysis #38

25.83s
3,762 toks
Problem Statement

Let aa be a natural number with a6a \leq 6. Using one die and one coin, perform the following experiment.\begin{center}\fbox{\begin{minipage}{0.9\textwidth}Roll the die once.\quad-- If the outcome is less than or equal to aa, toss the coin 55 times and record the number of heads.\quad-- If the outcome is greater than aa, toss the coin 33 times and record the number of heads.\end{minipage}}\end{center}Repeat this experiment 1920019200 times, and let XX be the number of times the recorded value is 33. Suppose that E(X)=4800\text{E}(X) = 4800. Using the standard normal table on the right, computeP(X4800+30a),\text{P}(X \leq 4800 + 30a),and let this value be kk. Compute 1000 $$\times$$ k. [4 points]\begin{center}\begin{tabular}{|c|c|}\hlinezz & P(0Zz)\text{P}(0 \leq Z \leq z) \\hline0.5 & 0.191 \\hline1.0 & 0.341 \\hline1.5 & 0.433 \\hline2.0 & 0.477 \\hline2.5 & 0.494 \\hline3.0 & 0.499 \\hline\end{tabular}\end{center}\

Ground Truth
977
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] I’ll use Python to:

  1. Express the single-trial probability of recording value 3 in terms of (a).
  2. Solve for (a) using the condition (E(X)=4800).
  3. Use the normal approximation to compute (P(X \le 4800 + 30a)) and then (1000k).

[/THOUGHT] [PYTHON] import sympy as sp import math

Step 1: Define p(a)

a = sp.symbols('a', integer=True) p = (a/6)(5/sp.Integer(16)) + ((6-a)/6)(1/sp.Integer(8)) # probability of recording 3

Step 2: Solve for a given E(X)=4800 with n=19200

n = 19200 solution = sp.solve(sp.Eq(n*p, 4800), a) solution [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] [4] [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] From the Python result, (a = 4). Then (p = \frac{4800}{19200} = 0.25), so (X \sim \text{Bin}(19200, 0.25)) with mean (4800) and variance (19200 \cdot 0.25 \cdot 0.75 = 3600), hence (\sigma = 60).

We need (P(X \le 4800 + 30a) = P(X \le 4920)). Using the normal approximation, [ Z = \frac{4920 - 4800}{60} = 2. ] The table gives (P(0 \le Z \le 2) = 0.477), so (P(Z \le 2) = 0.5 + 0.477 = 0.977). Thus (k = 0.977), and (1000k = 977). [/THOUGHT] \boxed{977}

Final Model Output
977

Comparative Analysis (P38) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
69.5
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
64.7
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
57.4
Deepseek-V3.2
51.2
Grok-4.1-fast
32.0
HCX-007(high)
30.4
A.X-4.0 (72B)
28.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
25.8
Claude-Opus-4.5
21.1
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
7.3

Avg Token Usage

Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
10399.0
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
10165.0
Grok-4.1-fast
6540.0
Claude-Opus-4.5
5947.0
Deepseek-V3.2
5195.0
HCX-007(high)
5075.0
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
4934.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
3762.0
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
3117.0
A.X-4.0 (72B)
2613.0