Problem Analysis #38

GPT-5.1 (high) · Run 1

25.83s
3,762 toks
Problem Statement

Let aa be a natural number with a6a \leq 6. Using one die and one coin, perform the following experiment.\begin{center}\fbox{\begin{minipage}{0.9\textwidth}Roll the die once.\quad-- If the outcome is less than or equal to aa, toss the coin 55 times and record the number of heads.\quad-- If the outcome is greater than aa, toss the coin 33 times and record the number of heads.\end{minipage}}\end{center}Repeat this experiment 1920019200 times, and let XX be the number of times the recorded value is 33. Suppose that E(X)=4800\text{E}(X) = 4800. Using the standard normal table on the right, compute

P(X4800+30a),\text{P}(X \leq 4800 + 30a),

and let this value be kk. Compute 1000×k1000 \times k. [4 points]\begin{center}\begin{tabular}{|c|c|}\hlinezz & P(0Zz)\text{P}(0 \leq Z \leq z) \\hline0.5 & 0.191 \\hline1.0 & 0.341 \\hline1.5 & 0.433 \\hline2.0 & 0.477 \\hline2.5 & 0.494 \\hline3.0 & 0.499 \\hline\end{tabular}\end{center}\

Ground Truth
977
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] I’ll use Python to:

  1. Express the single-trial probability of recording value 3 in terms of aa.
  2. Solve for aa using the condition E(X)=4800E(X)=4800.
  3. Use the normal approximation to compute P(X4800+30a)P(X \le 4800 + 30a) and then 1000k1000k.

[/THOUGHT] [PYTHON] import sympy as sp import math

Step 1: Define p(a)

a = sp.symbols('a', integer=True) p = (a/6)(5/sp.Integer(16)) + ((6-a)/6)(1/sp.Integer(8)) # probability of recording 3

Step 2: Solve for a given E(X)=4800 with n=19200

n = 19200 solution = sp.solve(sp.Eq(n*p, 4800), a) solution [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] [4] [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] From the Python result, a=4a = 4. Then p=480019200=0.25p = \frac{4800}{19200} = 0.25, so XBin(19200,0.25)X \sim \text{Bin}(19200, 0.25) with mean 48004800 and variance 192000.250.75=360019200 \cdot 0.25 \cdot 0.75 = 3600, hence σ=60\sigma = 60.

We need P(X4800+30a)=P(X4920)P(X \le 4800 + 30a) = P(X \le 4920). Using the normal approximation,

Z=4920480060=2.Z = \frac{4920 - 4800}{60} = 2.

The table gives P(0Z2)=0.477P(0 \le Z \le 2) = 0.477, so P(Z2)=0.5+0.477=0.977P(Z \le 2) = 0.5 + 0.477 = 0.977. Thus k=0.977k = 0.977, and 1000k=9771000k = 977. [/THOUGHT] 977\boxed{977}

Final Model Output
977

Comparative Analysis (P38) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
249.6
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
69.5
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
64.7
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
57.4
Deepseek-V3.2
51.2
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
39.2
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
37.6
Grok-4.1-fast
32.0
HCX-007(high)
30.4
A.X-4.0 (72B)
28.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
25.8
Solar-Open-100B
23.2
Claude-Opus-4.5
21.1
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
17.5
GPT-5.2 (high)
16.8
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
7.3

Avg Token Usage

K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
38,446
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
10,399
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
10,165
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
9,915
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
8,437
Grok-4.1-fast
6,540
Solar-Open-100B
6,465
Claude-Opus-4.5
5,947
Deepseek-V3.2
5,195
HCX-007(high)
5,075
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
4,934
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
4,808
GPT-5.2 (high)
4,057
GPT-5.1 (high)
3,762
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
3,117
A.X-4.0 (72B)
2,613