Problem Analysis #25

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Problem Statement

Suppose the following conditions hold. A prize-drawing event uses a box containing 4 crimson balls and 5 blue balls. You are given four opportunities to draw a ball, without replacement.Under these conditions, you receive a prize of 100(10,000-won units) if you draw a crimson ball on the first draw, and 200(10,000-won units) if you draw a crimson ball on the fourth draw. Let XX be the random variable representing the total prize money obtained after drawing four balls from the box. If the expected value of XX is written aspq,\frac{p}{q},where pp and qq are relatively prime positive integers, find the value ofpq2.p \cdot q^2.oindent

Ground Truth
3600
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] The total prize (X) consists of two independent contributions:

  • 100 units if the first draw is crimson,
  • 200 units if the fourth draw is crimson.

Since the draws are without replacement, each position in the sequence of draws has the same probability of being a crimson ball, namely (\frac{4}{9}).

Thus
[ E[X]=100\cdot\frac{4}{9}+200\cdot\frac{4}{9}= \frac{400}{3}. ]
Writing (E[X]=\frac{p}{q}) with (\gcd(p,q)=1) gives (p=400,;q=3).

We need (p\cdot q^{2}=400\cdot 3^{2}=400\cdot9=3600).
[/THOUGHT]

[PYTHON] from sympy import Rational

probability that a given draw is crimson

p_crimson = Rational(4, 9)

expected prize

E = 100 * p_crimson + 200 * p_crimson print(E) # expected value as a rational number

extract numerator and denominator

p = E.numerator q = E.denominator result = p * q**2 print(result) # p * q^2 [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] 400/3 3600 [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] The Python output confirms the expected value is (\frac{400}{3}), so (p = 400) and (q = 3). Calculating (p \cdot q^2 = 400 \cdot 3^2 = 3600) gives the final result. [/THOUGHT]

\boxed{3600}

Final Model Output
3600

Comparative Analysis (P25) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
164.4
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
45.3
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
35.8
Grok-4.1-fast
31.5
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
28.9
HCX-007(high)
28.2
Deepseek-V3.2
27.9
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
27.7
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
24.3
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
19.0
Solar-Open-100B
16.4
Claude-Opus-4.5
14.3
A.X-4.0 (72B)
13.5
GPT-5.1 (high)
13.4
GPT-5.2 (high)
11.4
axk1
5.7
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
3.9

Avg Token Usage

K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
18547.7
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
9068.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
5758.5
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
5595.0
Grok-4.1-fast
5445.0
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
5220.0
Solar-Open-100B
4781.0
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
4410.0
HCX-007(high)
4007.0
Claude-Opus-4.5
3853.0
Deepseek-V3.2
3682.0
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
3480.0
GPT-5.2 (high)
3140.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
2933.0
axk1
2737.0
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
1847.0
A.X-4.0 (72B)
1715.0