Problem Analysis #7

Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601 · Run 1

38.41s
9,555 toks
Problem Statement

A student tosses a fair coin 2020 times and lets NN be the number of heads observed. Thus

\nFor a complicated risk measure, the student needs the value of the fourth moment E[N4]\mathbb{E}[N^4]. \nDefine

\nCompute the exact integer value of KK.

Ground Truth
13072500
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] The random variable NN follows a binomial distribution with parameters n=20n = 20 and p=1/2p = 1/2. The fourth moment E[N4]\mathbb{E}[N^4] is computed using the formula for the fourth moment of a binomial distribution, which involves Stirling numbers of the second kind. The formula is:

E[N4]=S(4,1)np+S(4,2)n(n1)p2+S(4,3)n(n1)(n2)p3+S(4,4)n(n1)(n2)(n3)p4\mathbb{E}[N^4] = S(4,1) \cdot n p + S(4,2) \cdot n(n-1) p^2 + S(4,3) \cdot n(n-1)(n-2) p^3 + S(4,4) \cdot n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3) p^4

where S(4,1)=1S(4,1) = 1, S(4,2)=7S(4,2) = 7, S(4,3)=6S(4,3) = 6, and S(4,4)=1S(4,4) = 1.

Substituting n=20n = 20 and p=1/2p = 1/2:

  • First term: 12012=101 \cdot 20 \cdot \frac{1}{2} = 10
  • Second term: 72019(12)2=73800.25=795=6657 \cdot 20 \cdot 19 \cdot \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^2 = 7 \cdot 380 \cdot 0.25 = 7 \cdot 95 = 665
  • Third term: 6201918(12)3=668400.125=6855=51306 \cdot 20 \cdot 19 \cdot 18 \cdot \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3 = 6 \cdot 6840 \cdot 0.125 = 6 \cdot 855 = 5130
  • Fourth term: 120191817(12)4=201918170.06251 \cdot 20 \cdot 19 \cdot 18 \cdot 17 \cdot \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^4 = 20 \cdot 19 \cdot 18 \cdot 17 \cdot 0.0625

Calculate 2019=38020 \cdot 19 = 380, 38018=6840380 \cdot 18 = 6840, 684017=1162806840 \cdot 17 = 116280, and 1162800.0625=116280/16=7267.5116280 \cdot 0.0625 = 116280 / 16 = 7267.5.

Summing the terms: 10+665=67510 + 665 = 675, 675+5130=5805675 + 5130 = 5805, 5805+7267.5=13072.55805 + 7267.5 = 13072.5.

Thus, E[N4]=13072.5\mathbb{E}[N^4] = 13072.5.

Now, K=1000E[N4]=100013072.5=13072500K = 1000 \cdot \mathbb{E}[N^4] = 1000 \cdot 13072.5 = 13072500.

The exact integer value of KK is 13072500. 13072500\boxed{13072500}

Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] We are to compute the fourth moment of a binomial random variable N ~ Binomial(20, 1/2), then multiply by 1000 to get K. The exact value of K is an integer. We use Python to compute the sum of k^4 * C(20,k) for k from 0 to 20, then multiply by 1000 and divide by 2^20 to get the integer K. [/THOUGHT] [PYTHON] import math n = 20 total = 0 for k in range(0, n+1): binom = math.comb(n, k) total += k4 * binom K = (1000 * total) // (220) print(K) [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] 13072500 [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

13072500\boxed{13072500}

Final Model Output
13072500

Comparative Analysis (P7) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

Solar-Open-100B
210.9
Solar-Pro 2
60.8
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
52.2
HCX-007
36.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
33.4
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
27.5
GLM-4.5-Air
17.0
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
13.9
GPT-5.2 (high)
8.4
EXAONE-4.0-32B
3.2

Avg Token Usage

Solar-Pro 2
12433.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
10068.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
8240.0
HCX-007
4776.3
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
4468.3
EXAONE-4.0-32B
4113.3
Solar-Open-100B
3704.0
GLM-4.5-Air
2856.7
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
2745.3
GPT-5.2 (high)
2738.3