Problem Analysis #7

Solar-Pro 2 · Run 1

39.68s
8,877 toks
Problem Statement

A student tosses a fair coin 2020 times and lets NN be the number of heads observed. Thus

\nFor a complicated risk measure, the student needs the value of the fourth moment E[N4]\mathbb{E}[N^4]. \nDefine

\nCompute the exact integer value of KK.

Ground Truth
13072500
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] To compute the fourth moment E[N4]\mathbb{E}[N^4] for NBinomial(20,1/2)N \sim \mathrm{Binomial}(20, 1/2), we use the formula involving Stirling numbers of the second kind. The fourth moment is given by:

E[N4]=k=14S(4,k)nkpk\mathbb{E}[N^4] = \sum_{k=1}^{4} S(4, k) \cdot n^{\underline{k}} \cdot p^k

where S(4,k)S(4, k) are the Stirling numbers of the second kind, nkn^{\underline{k}} is the falling factorial, and p=1/2p = 1/2. The Stirling numbers for k=1k=1 to 44 are 1,7,6,11, 7, 6, 1 respectively. Substituting n=20n=20 and p=1/2p=1/2, we calculate each term and sum them up. Multiplying the result by 1000 gives KK.

[/THOUGHT] [PYTHON]

Calculate the fourth moment using Stirling numbers of the second kind

n = 20 p = 1/2

Stirling numbers of the second kind for k=1 to 4

S = [1, 7, 6, 1]

Falling factorials

falling = [ n, # n n * (n - 1), # n(n-1) n * (n - 1) * (n - 2), # n(n-1)(n-2) n * (n - 1) * (n - 2) * (n - 3) # n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3) ]

Calculate each term and sum

E_N4 = sum(S[k] * falling[k] * (p ** (k + 1)) for k in range(4)) K = int(E_N4 * 1000) print(K) [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] 13072500 [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] The Python code computed K=1000E[N4]=13072500K = 1000 \cdot \mathbb{E}[N^4] = 13072500 using the Stirling numbers approach. The output is valid and matches the required integer format. [/THOUGHT] 13072500\boxed{13072500}

Final Model Output
13072500

Comparative Analysis (P7) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

Solar-Open-100B
210.9
Solar-Pro 2
60.8
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
52.2
HCX-007
36.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
33.4
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
27.5
GLM-4.5-Air
17.0
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
13.9
GPT-5.2 (high)
8.4
EXAONE-4.0-32B
3.2

Avg Token Usage

Solar-Pro 2
12433.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
10068.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
8240.0
HCX-007
4776.3
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
4468.3
EXAONE-4.0-32B
4113.3
Solar-Open-100B
3704.0
GLM-4.5-Air
2856.7
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
2745.3
GPT-5.2 (high)
2738.3