A student tosses a fair coin times and lets be the number of heads observed. Thus
\nFor a complicated risk measure, the student needs the value of the fourth moment . \nDefine
\nCompute the exact integer value of .
[THOUGHT] To compute the fourth moment for , we use the formula involving Stirling numbers of the second kind. The fourth moment is given by:
where are the Stirling numbers of the second kind, is the falling factorial, and . The Stirling numbers for to are respectively. Substituting and , we calculate each term and sum them up. Multiplying the result by 1000 gives .
[/THOUGHT] [PYTHON]
Calculate the fourth moment using Stirling numbers of the second kind
n = 20 p = 1/2
Stirling numbers of the second kind for k=1 to 4
S = [1, 7, 6, 1]
Falling factorials
falling = [ n, # n n * (n - 1), # n(n-1) n * (n - 1) * (n - 2), # n(n-1)(n-2) n * (n - 1) * (n - 2) * (n - 3) # n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3) ]
Calculate each term and sum
E_N4 = sum(S[k] * falling[k] * (p ** (k + 1)) for k in range(4)) K = int(E_N4 * 1000) print(K) [/PYTHON]
[THOUGHT] The Python code computed using the Stirling numbers approach. The output is valid and matches the required integer format. [/THOUGHT]