Problem Analysis #7

18.49s
2,762 toks
Problem Statement

A student tosses a fair coin 2020 times and lets NN be the number of heads observed. Thus

NBinomial(20,1/2).N \sim \mathrm{Binomial}(20,1/2).

For a complicated risk measure, the student needs the value of the fourth moment E[N4]\mathbb{E}[N^4]. Define

K:=1000E[N4].K := 1000 \cdot \mathbb{E}[N^4].

Compute the exact integer value of KK.

Ground Truth
13072500
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] I need to compute the fourth moment of a binomial random variable N ~ Binomial(20, 1/2). The fourth moment is E[N^4]. For a binomial random variable with parameters n and p, the moments can be computed using the moment generating function or by using factorial moments and polynomial expansion.

The fourth moment can be expressed in terms of the factorial moments: E[N^4] = E[N(N-1)(N-2)(N-3)] + 6E[N(N-1)(N-2)] + 7E[N(N-1)] + E[N]

For a binomial random variable: E[N] = np E[N(N-1)] = n(n-1)p^2 E[N(N-1)(N-2)] = n(n-1)(n-2)p^3 E[N(N-1)(N-2)(N-3)] = n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3)p^4

Given n=20, p=1/2, I can compute each term and sum them up to get E[N^4]. Then K = 1000 * E[N^4].

I'll use Python to compute this step by step to avoid calculation errors. [/THOUGHT] [PYTHON]

Given parameters

n = 20 p = 0.5

Compute factorial moments

E_N = n * p E_N2 = n * (n - 1) * p2 E_N3 = n * (n - 1) * (n - 2) * p3 E_N4 = n * (n - 1) * (n - 2) * (n - 3) * p**4

Compute fourth moment using factorial moments

E_N4_moment = E_N4 + 6 * E_N3 + 7 * E_N2 + E_N

Compute K

K = 1000 * E_N4_moment

Print the result as integer

print(int(K)) [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] 13072500 [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] The Python calculation confirms that K = 13072500. This is the exact integer value of 1000 times the fourth moment of a Binomial(20, 1/2) random variable. [/THOUGHT] \boxed{13072500}

Final Model Output
13072500

Comparative Analysis (P7) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

Solar-Open-100B
210.9
Solar-Pro 2
60.8
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
52.2
naver-hyperclovax/HCX-007
36.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
33.4
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
27.5
model_d_r1
22.5
GLM-4.5-Air
17.0
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
13.9
GPT-5.2 (high)
8.4
axk1
5.8
EXAONE-4.0-32B
3.2

Avg Token Usage

Solar-Pro 2
12433.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
10068.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
8240.0
naver-hyperclovax/HCX-007
4776.3
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
4468.3
EXAONE-4.0-32B
4113.3
model_d_r1
4096.0
Solar-Open-100B
3704.0
GLM-4.5-Air
2856.7
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
2745.3
GPT-5.2 (high)
2738.3
axk1
2560.7